深度报告：湾区核心资产，网络价值重估

2023-08-14 10:13:38上传人：Al**t∞
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一、湾区核心资产：网运双轮驱动增长，高人工成本持续通胀 ·····················································
1.1 广深铁路：卡位大湾区核心要道 ·······················································································
1.2 商业模式：网运分离，分别对应路网使用费和客票收入 ··························································
1.3 广深铁路：由路网、客运营收双轮驱动，占总营收比重约 8-9成 ·················································
1.4 广深铁路：当前人工是第一大成本，占比近 4成 ·····································································
1.5 广深铁路：疫后客流快速修复 ··································································································
二、平行分流尾声：高铁网络基本落成，分流效应边际减弱 ·························································
2.1 平行分流尾声：广东高铁网络基本成型，对普铁分流影响边际减弱 ············································
2.2 平行分流尾声：广深港高铁直接分流城际和直通车业务 ···························································
2.3 平行分流尾声：穗深城际间接分流城际列车 ··········································································
三、交叉引流起点：北上赣深，南下跨境，东延广汕，西接广湛，网络价值充分演绎 ·························
3.1 交叉引流起点：北上赣深高铁引流，开始步入高铁时代 ···························································
3.2 交叉引流起点：南下跨境直通香港，公司有望转为承运担当 ······················································
3.3 交叉引流起点：东延接轨广汕高铁，网络连通度再提升 ···························································
3.4 交叉引流起点：西接广湛高铁，助力粤西融入，促进湾区空铁双向联动 ·······································
请务必阅读报告附注中的风险提示和免责声明 5
四、基建拓流接力：核心站点升级改造，普铁属性切换高铁 ··························································
4.1 基建拓流接力：高铁进城，解决广州市区没有高铁站的痛点 ·····················································
4.2 基建拓流接力：高铁转型有望打开公司成长空间 ·····································································
五、票价改革持续：铁路改革先行试点，转型高铁弹性打开 ··························································
5.1 铁路改革试点，开自主定价先河 ··························································································
5.2 广铁定价基准领先全国，但仅为日欧等国 2-3 成左右 ·······························································
5.3 普铁转型高铁，票价弹性打开 ·····························································································
六、投资建议：把握普铁向高铁切换的重要机遇，首次覆盖给予“增持”评级 ···································
七、风险提示 ·······················································································································
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