船舶制造行业深度报告：周期轮回三十余年，夜色渐退蓄势扬帆

2023-02-06 22:30:28上传人：Ev**su
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一、行业概况：周期上行和格局改善是超额收益来源 ······················································
1.1 产业链：上游是原材料和船舶设备，下游是航运公司 ··················································
1.2 产品链：以散、油、集等大型船只为主 ····································································
1.3 生产流程：设计 → 采购 → 拼装，一般耗时 1-2年不等 ····················································
1.4 市场规模：整体规模超四千亿人民币，份额高度集中在头部船厂 ···································
1.5 财务特征：资本、人力密集且利润微薄 ····································································
1.6 产业链上并无议价强点 ·························································································
1.7 船型产品线虽有差异，但造船厂利润率并无绝对高低 ··················································
1.8 β行情看周期上行， α行情看份额集中 ·······································································
二、周期复盘：大周期轮回约三十年，需求超规格上行导致供不应求 ··································
2.1 周期回顾：二战后共演绎过两轮大周期，间隔约 30 年左右 ············································
2.2 第一轮周期：战后长牛， 1967 年后景气上行加速 ························································
2.3 第二轮周期：特殊事件带动油运、散货市场回暖 ························································
2.4 第三轮周期：期间 OPEC 增产降价，油运行情表现突出 ················································
2.5 第四轮周期：需求全面上行的景气周期 ····································································
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目录
三、格局复盘：二战后造船中心东移，后发优势显著 ········· ·············································
3.1 欧洲：传统海贸强国，受益工业革命，率先成为全球造船中心 ······································
3.2 日本：标准化新工艺提升生产效率，造船模式在国内大规模复制 ···································
3.3 韩国：受政府强力支持，在震荡行情中崛起 ······························································
3.4 中国：海军建设孕育基础，保军转民走向深蓝 ···························································
四、周期位置及展望：上行阶段的十字路口，关注造船新周期的机会 ··································
4.1 周期位置：上行阶段的十字路口 ·············································································
4.2 供给：紧张程度短期难改 ······················································································
4.3 需求：油、散等其他船型接力希望较大 ····································································
4.4 格局：中国船厂份额有望进一步提升 ·······································································
投资建议及风险提示 ································································································