欧盟碳边境调节机制（CBAM）与中国钢铁行业低碳转型的互动分析模型构建

2025-07-08 10:12:00上传人：胖虎**我胖
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2023年10月1日，欧盟正式试行碳边境调节机制（CBAM），成为其推动国际气候贸易政策的变革性措施。中欧互为全球气候行动的关键伙伴和重要贸易伙伴，CBAM的实施及其潜在的政策影响将对中欧未来的贸易格局和在气候变化领域的合作产生长期深远的影响。准确把握CBAM对中国出口欧盟产品影响的长期趋势有助于中欧在CBAM实施规则上

执行摘要 ···························································································I
Executive Summary················································································III
CBAM 政策专用术语及示例···········································································1
第一章研究目的与研究方法···········································································2
1.1 研究背景·········································································· 2
1.2 文献综述·········································································· 3
1.3 研究目的·········································································· 5
1.4 研究方法·········································································· 6
第二章建模关键点···················································································8
2.1 CBAM 政策规则有待细化和明确······················································ 8
2.2 CBAM 与中国钢铁行业减碳路径的复杂互动············································· 9
2.3 CBAM 规则制定未充分反映中国钢铁行业的复杂特性····································· 9
第三章 CBAM-CST 模型概述·········································································10
3.1 模型简介·········································································· 11
3.2 关键公式·········································································· 13
3.3 情景设置·········································································· 15
第四章影响 CBAM 费用的关键不确定性因素分析·······················································18
4.1 免费配额基准值的退出与欧盟碳中和目标如何影响 EU ETS 价格···························· 18
4.2 CBAM 覆盖范围内钢铁产品的免费配额基准值如何与产品一一对应··························19
4.3 CBAM 免费配额基准值如何设定······················································ 21
4.4 中国碳市场免费配额基准值如何设定与退出············································· 21
4.5 中国钢铁对欧盟出口量如何预测······················································· 23
4.6 中国钢铁企业“已有效的支付的碳成本”如何被欧盟认可···································· 25
4.7 通胀和汇率的不确定性如何影响 CBAM 费用············································ 25
第五章研究贡献、局限与下一步计划··································································28
5.1 本研究系列报告···································································· 28
5.2 模型创新·········································································· 28
5.3 模型局限·········································································· 29
5.4 下一步研究计划···································································· 29
引用·····························································································30
图目录
表目录
表 1-1 CBAM 相关文献综述表······································································································4
表 3-1 CBAM-CST 模型输入参数····································································································12
表 3-1 CBAM-CST 模型输入参数····································································································12
表 3-3 现有情景矩阵示意表········································································································17
表 4-1 CBAM 钢铁行业相关的免费配额基准值························································································20
表 4-2 CBAM 钢铁行业相关的免费配额基准值与钢铁产品对应表········································································20
图 4-1 不同情景下 2020-2050 年欧盟 EU ETS 碳价格预测 ·············································································19
图 3-1 本研究研究框架············································································································11
图 3-2 CBAM 公式················································································································13
图 3-3 CBAM 与中国钢铁行业低碳转型互动的情景设定逻辑图··········································································16
图 4-2 尚未公布免费配额基准值的 CBAM 涵盖钢铁产品（按进口量）的比例（绿色和灰色部分）············································20
图 4-3 中国全国碳市场免费配额基准值预测 - 工艺法与产品法对比（2025-2040 年）······················································22
图 4-4 EU ETS 免费配额基准值预测 - 工艺法与产品法对比·············································································22
图 4-5 2000-2050 年欧盟从中国进口 CBAM 钢铁产品的贸易量·········································································23
图 4-6 2000-2050 年欧盟从中国进口 CBAM 钢铁产品的贸易量·········································································24
图 4-7 欧元兑人民币汇率··········································································································25
图 4-8 2000-2024 年中国通货膨胀率································································································26
图 4-9 2000-2024 年欧元区通货膨胀率······························································································26
图 4-10 欧盟与其他地区 2021 年第三季度 -2023 第三季度通胀率·······································································27